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Layer: Modeled Fire Risk 2040-2059 (ID: 39)

Parent Layer: Exposure to Wildfire-Related Mortality, RCP 4.5

Name: Modeled Fire Risk 2040-2059

Display Field: Fireshed_N

Type: Feature Layer

Geometry Type: esriGeometryPolygon

Description: This data layer combines modeled future fire risk data produced by Anderegg et al., 2022 (https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.14018). This research modelled fire risk using monthly temperature, precipitation and climatic water deficit (CWD) derived from the TerraClimate dataset (SI Methods), a 12-month rolling average of US-average monthly temperature and precipitation to capture longer-term trends, as well as the National Forest Type Dataset fit to Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity data for moderate and severe fires. The raw fire risk data was separated from the combined risk estimate, and four twenty-year averages were then produced from the data: 1980–1999, 2000–2019, 2040–2059, and 2080–2099. The source data that was used can be downloaded here: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4741333. The resulting 20 year average data was then summarized to the Fireshed scale. The data were classified using the following breakpoints: Very Low (1): ≤ 0.000072% per yearLow (2): 0.000072–0.000494% per yearModerate (3): 0.000494–0.000825% per yearHigh (4): 0.000825–0.001562% per yearVery High (5): >0.001562% per yearThe Fireshed Registry is a geospatial dashboard and decision tool built to organize information about wildfire transmission to communities and monitor progress towards risk reduction for communities from management investments. Fireshed areas in the Fireshed Registry are approximately 250,000 acre accounting units that are delineated based on a smoothed building exposure map of the continental United States. This size was chosen to contain most (> 99%) of the large fires, with fire sizes generally smaller than 250,000 acres, although the largest extreme event fires can span multiple firesheds.These boundaries were created by dividing up the landscape into regular-sized units that represent similar source levels of community exposure to wildfire risk. Project areas are approximately 25,000 acre accounting units nested within firesheds. This data publication includes a geodatabase that contains for both fireshed and project areas: boundaries, size, total annual number of buildings inside and outside of the area exposed by wildfires ignited within the area (based on 2010 housing unit data and 2014 fuels conditions), and percent of the area that has been disturbed since 2014 (2015-2018). Additional information about the Fireshed Registry can be found here: https://www.fs.usda.gov/research/rmrs/projects/fireshedsSpatial Extent: CONUS

Copyright Text: Fire Risk data Authors: Oriana Chegwidden, William Anderegg, Grayson Badgley, Anna Trugman, Danny Cullenward, John Abatzoglou, Jeffery Hicke, Jeremy Freeman, Joseph Hamman Fireshed Authors: Cody R. Evers, Chris D. Ringo, Alan A. Ager, Michelle A. Day, Fermin J. Alcasena Urdiroz, Ken J. Bunzel, Funding for the Fireshed Registry was provided by the USDA Forest Service, State and Private Forestry.

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Supported Query Formats: JSON, geoJSON, PBF

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Fields:
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