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Categorical representation of threat due to future insect and disease outbreaks, for each fireshed, based on current stand and site conditions |
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Categorical representation of threat due to future insect and disease outbreaks, for each fireshed, based on current stand and site conditions |
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USDA Forest Service Terrestrial Condition Assessment (TCA) and Mature and Old Growth Inventory Technical Team: Scott Barndt, Andrew Gray, Greg Hayward, Christopher Hiemstra, Aaron Kamoske, Shanna Kleinsmith, Joseph Krueger, Marin Palmer, Kristen Pelz, Wade Salverson |
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<DIV STYLE="text-align:Left;font-size:12pt"><DIV><DIV><P><SPAN>The Terrestrial Condition Assessment (TCA) was adapted to understand the ecological condition and potential threats to MOG in an integrated way. The TCA was developed by the Forest Service, and it leverages nationally consistent datasets to model ecological integrity on National Forest System (NFS) lands at the mid-level using land-type associations (LTA) or comparable spatial units representing ecosystems (Cleland et al. 2017, Nelson et al. 2015 Winthers et al. 2005). The TCA model is supported through the Ecosystem Management Decision Support (EMDS) logic model which provides transparency and repeatability for TCA while allowing TCA to incorporate information about the relationships between indicators and metrics of ecological integrity.</SPAN></P><P><SPAN>The initial version of MOG-CA focuses on current conditions and threats with the portion of the model devoted to future threats to be developed later. The architecture of the model consists of a network of logic networks, in which each logic network evaluates evidence for a proposition (e.g., threat is absent) in terms of two or more logical premises or parameters (values/thresholds that define a condition). Each path through the logic architecture terminates in a data input that is interpreted based on the premises/parameters, and subsequently synthesized with the other data inputs for each Fireshed Project Area. The model is data driven and therefore, evidence based</SPAN><SPAN>. </SPAN></P><P><SPAN>Where TCA evaluates ecological integrity (Overall Terrestrial Condition) as the absence of ecological stressors, the MOG-CA model evaluates the overall MOG condition as the absence of detrimental conditions and potential threats. Along these lines, the overall MOG condition can be thought of as an inference about MOG integrity.</SPAN></P><P STYLE="margin:0 0 13 0;"><SPAN>The National Insect and Disease Risk Map (NIDRM) developed by USFS-FHAAST indicates locations where forests are stressed and susceptible to outbreaks of native and non-native insects and diseases. These include forests with overly high stand densities and where soil/site conditions contribute to drought. The basis for assigning risk is the expectation that 25% or more of live basal area (three times the natural background rate of mortality) will die over the next 15 years due to insects and diseases. </SPAN></P><P><SPAN>Insect and Pathogen scores for each Fireshed Project Area range from -1 to +1. Classes represent even divisions (ranges of 0.4) of the full range of possible model scores (very highest score = +1, very lowest score =−1). Threat classes in order from order from highest score (+1) to lowest score (-1):</SPAN></P><UL><LI><P><SPAN>Very Good Condition = Very Low Risk (1): 1 – 0.6</SPAN></P></LI><LI><P><SPAN>Good Condition = Low Risk (2): 0.2 – 0.6</SPAN></P></LI><LI><P><SPAN>Moderate Condition = Moderate Risk (3): -0.2 – 0.2</SPAN></P></LI><LI><P><SPAN>Poor Condition = High Risk(4): -0.2 – -0.6</SPAN></P></LI><LI><P><SPAN>Very Poor Condition = Very High Risk (5): -1 – -0.6</SPAN></P></LI></UL><P><SPAN>Spatial Extent: CONUS</SPAN></P><P><SPAN>Units: "Categories of % of area:</SPAN></P><P><SPAN>Very Low (<12% of area)</SPAN></P><P><SPAN>Low (12-19% of area)</SPAN></P><P><SPAN>Moderate (19 – 23% of area)</SPAN></P><P><SPAN>High (23 – 30% of area)</SPAN></P><P><SPAN>Very High (>30% of area)"</SPAN></P></DIV></DIV></DIV> |
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<DIV STYLE="text-align:Left;font-size:12pt"><DIV><DIV><P><SPAN>The USDA Forest Service makes no warranty, expressed or implied, including the warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose, nor assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, reliability, completeness or utility of these geospatial data, or for the improper or incorrect use of these geospatial data. These geospatial data and related maps or graphics are not legal documents and are not intended to be used as such. The data and maps may not be used to determine title, ownership, legal descriptions or boundaries, legal jurisdiction, or restrictions that may be in place on either public or private land. Natural hazards may or may not be depicted on the data and maps, and land users should exercise due caution. The data are dynamic and may change over time. The user is responsible to verify the limitations of the geospatial data and to use the data accordingly.</SPAN></P></DIV></DIV></DIV> |
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MOGCA Forest Insect and Pathogen Hazard Scores at the Project Area Scale for the Conterminous United States |
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["Climate Risk Viewer","US Forest Service","USFS","Office of Sustainability and Climate","OSC","CRV","Climate Change","Forest"] |
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en-US |
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150000000 |
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